The mainstream media have failed: Mr. Bolsonaro resists 

di Jacopo Ugolini
30 Ottobre 2022

foto: dal web

The Brazilian election has not a winner: the current President, Jair Bolsonaro, maintains the consensus after his four years at the helm of Brazil. The polls have failed for another time: for months Lula was given as the winner of the first round but at the end he garnered 48% of the vote, while Bolsonaro won 43%. The pollsters have been attacked for their very wrong polls. We can say that it is one of the most polarised elections in the history of Brazil: on the one hand, we have a right-wing President, Jair Bolsonaro, leader of the Liberal Party, and, on the other, there is the leader of the Workers’ Party, Lula, who governed South America’s largest country from 2003 to 2010. Besides Bolsonaro and Lula, none of the other candidates won more than 5% of the vote: the Brazilian Democratic Movement candidate, Simone Tebet, garnered 4.2% and Ciro Gomes, Democratic Labour Party leader, achieved 3% of the vote. 

The division in the Brazilian State is very strong: the North and North-East population voted for Lula, while South and Southeast favored Bolsonaro. For example, Bahía (located in the North-East), that counts 14 million inhabitants and is one of the main important polling places, has seen Lula win with 69.73% of votes against 21.31% of Bolsonaro. Instead, Bolsonaro gained the major of his votes in the South, where the States are generally wealthier and linked to the traditional values.

Going back to the polls mistakes, Poter Data e Paraná Pesquisas were the main correct polls of the first round and for the ballot they published their polls, that show a distance of two points between the two candidates, Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. Lula. But, why was Mr. Bolsonaro given as already a loser in the first round and at the end he achieved 43% of the Brazilian vote? We must consider the growth of the Brazilian economy, which shows a lower inflation compared to the European Union and United States. 

In addition, the prediction of the Brazil GDP growth is based on +2.9% for Goldman Sachs and even +3.25% for the Bank of America. The cost of gasoline is one of the lowest of South America, the minimum wage has been increased from 600 reais to 800 reais and the Bolsonaro government has started an important reduction of bureaucratisation of the Brazilian economy. It is important not to forget the importance of religion in Brazil: now the majority of Christians are composed of Evangelists and no longer of Catholics. The problem for Lula is that the Evangelists vote for Bolsonaro and his conservatism. The point is that the polls probably don’t consider this change in the Catholic community due to the non-updated censuses. Therefore/Hence, there are many possible twists, including a victory of Bolsonaro, which was unthinkable for the mainstream media.